Abstract

The Old Evidence Problem presented by Glymour in 1980 has been a great challenge for the rationality of the Bayesian Confirmation Theory. Since the Old Evidence Problem has been raised, much attention has been paid to it. A variety of solutions to the problem have been proposed, the most representative of which are Howson's Counterfactual Strategy and Garber's Learning Strategy. This paper analyzes some possible causes of the Old Evidence Problem. From the perspective of logical omniscience cognition and the Learning Strategy, it then summarizes the development of Garber-type Strategies, and explores how this kind of solutions resolve the Old Evidence Problem. However, these proposals have their own advantages and disadvantages. It is hard to reach an agreement on these disputes among scholars. Thus we haven't achieved the goal of both eliminating the Old Evidence Problem and preserving the reasonable components of the Bayesian theory. So the analysis of Garber-type Learning Strategies will provide us with some inspirations for eliminating the Old Evidence Problem thoroughly.

Key Words

The Old Evidence Problem; Bayesian Confirmation Theory; Learning Strategy; Logical omniscience

Citation: Xu, J. 'The Old Evidence Problem and the Analysis for Garber-type Learning Strategies' [J]. Journal of Dialectics of Nature, 2018, 40(4): 34-41.

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