JOURNAL OF DIALECTICS OF NATURE
A Comprehensive, Academic Journal of the Philosophy, History, Sociology and Cultural Studies of Science and Technology
Author Information
XU Juanjuan
Information
<p>Department of Philosophy</p><p>Nanjing University</p><p>july_xujuan@163.com</p>
Research Articles
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The Old Evidence Problem and the Analysis for Garber-type Learning Strategies Abstract: The Old Evidence Problem presented by Glymour in 1980 has been a great challenge for the rationality of the Bayesian Confirmation Theory. Since the Old Evidence Problem has been raised, much attention has been paid to it. A variety of solutions to the problem have been proposed, the most representative of which are Howson's Counterfactual Strategy and Garber's Learning Strategy. This paper analyzes some possible causes of the Old Evidence Problem. From the perspective of logical omniscience cognition and the Learning Strategy, it then summarizes the development of Garber-type Strategies, and explores how this kind of solutions resolve the Old Evidence Problem. However, these proposals have their own advantages and disadvantages. It is hard to reach an agreement on these disputes among scholars. Thus we haven't achieved the goal of both eliminating the Old Evidence Problem and preserving the reasonable components of the Bayesian theory. So the analysis of Garber-type Learning Strategies will provide us with some inspirations for eliminating the Old Evidence Problem thoroughly.Issue:Volume 40, lssue 4, April 2018Page: 34-41
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The Counterfactual Strategy in Resolving the Old Evidence Problem and Its Dilemmas Abstract: As a confirmation problem in Bayesian epistemology applying to hypothesis testing, the old evidence problem (OEP) challenges the applicability of Bayesian confirmation theory. Some subjective Bayesians, typified by Howson, emphasized the context-sensitive nature of Bayesian confirmation analysis, interpreted OEP from the perspective of counterfactual reasoning, and made a philosophical defense of the confirmation relationship between the old evidence and the hypothesis in the counterfactual sense. By critically examining the problem-solving mechanism of counterfactual strategy, it is clear that its dilemmas involve at least the computability of counterfactual background, the determinability of counterfactual credence and the appropriateness of counterfactual confirmation principle. In order to solve OEP effectively, it is necessary to get rid of the confirmation straitjacket of credence positive relevance, clarifying the nature of confirmation and constructing a Bayesian model that aligns with the core intuition of confirmation. Key Words: Bayesian epistemology; The old evidence problem; Context-sensitivity; Counterfactual reasoning; Credence positive relevanceIssue:Volume 47, lssue 9, September 2025Page: 38-45
JOURNAL OF DIALECTICS OF NATURE
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